The Initiative for Energy Storage (Initiative Energien Speicher, Ines) has drawn a positive balance for gas supply for 2024. This year, too, there is no reason to fear a gas shortage.
The month with the highest consumption last year was January, with an average of 3.9 billion kWh per day. A third of this (1.3 billion kWh) was provided from storage. By February, withdrawals from gas storage had already fallen to 500 million kWh per day, and in March to 300 million kWh per day. In April, injections already slightly exceeded withdrawals, so that the storage facilities were fully replenished by the end of October. In December, consumption reached 3.5 billion kWh per day, almost returning to the January level.
The highest daily demand was reached on January 9, with 5.8 billion kWh (of which 400 million kWh were for export). More than half of this, 3 billion kWh, were provided from storage, 2.7 billion kWh were imported on that day and 100 million kWh came from domestic German production.
Last year, an average of 3.4 billion kWh of gas per day (pd) was imported via European LNG terminals. The French facilities led the way (700 million kWh pd), followed by the LNG terminals in the Netherlands and Spain (500 million kWh pd each), Italy (400 million kWh pd) and the UK (300 million kWh pd).
In total, Europeans have the option of importing 9.4 billion kWh of gas per day. Last year, Spain (1.5 billion kWh pd), the United Kingdom (1.4 billion kWh pd) and France (700 million kWh pd) had the largest unused capacities.
Expected filling levels in February
At the turn of the year, storage levels had fallen to 80 percent. Nevertheless, Ines assumes that on February 1, even if the rest of the winter is particularly cold, there will still be more than the legally required 30 percent gas in the storage facilities. Although no more Russian gas will be supplied via Ukraine, a gas shortage is not expected. Additional efforts to save gas might be necessary only in the event of “extremely cold temperatures.” Consumers should then be “made aware of the situation.”
At moderate to mild temperatures, the operators of the storage facilities expect levels of 48 percent at the beginning of February. At the end of winter, it would still be 24 percent. In the following months, the storage facilities could be completely refilled even without gas being transported through Ukraine. However, there is currently no incentive to store gas because “the summer-winter spread remains clearly negative.” Gas for delivery next summer currently costs just under 48 euros/MWh. Futures for delivery next winter are being concluded for less than 46 euros/MWh.